Rocket Ramblings

STRANGE DAYS

The Mets are a weird team. It's hard to really define them so far this year... but despite all of their flaws (Delgado, Hielman, Perez, injuries, Willie, etc) they are only 3.5 games out of first and actually are looking pretty decent the last week.

There are a lot of things that look positive for them... Beltran starting to turn it on, the team's record in games started by Santana and Maine, the hitting and play of Reyes, Wright and Church, The continued success of Wagner, Sanchez and Shoenwiez... plus the fact that they had a stretch of 5-12 (with only the Yankee series being a good one) and are no more than 3.5 games out. Their run scored/runs given up diffiental is actually that of a much better team than their record shows and that is a good sign because it means that odds are thier record will adjust to those numbers and winning streaks are coming.

I think this team has under-achieved BIG time. I also think they have a big time hot streak in them.

I have my doubts about Willie Randolph. I think I prefer the (almost frienzied) antics of a Bobby V type manager. I'm NOT saying I want Booby V back. I liked him a lot, but I also reconize that he was always looking to put his stamp on a game and that bit the Mets at times. I'm NOT blaming the issues this year (and last) all on Willie.. but... I have my doubts about him.

I'm actually more concerned about the Braves than I am about the Phillies or Marlins. The Marlins are NOT for real. Sorry... but I do NOT believe it. Remember the Nationals' first year in Washington? Remember they were in 1st place going into the weekend of the All-Star break? Remember they finished FOURTH that year? That's the Marlins this year. The Phillies have an EXCELLENT offense... Utley is a total stud and Burrell looks very good this year so far. Howard and Rollins, while I do not think they will equal their massive numbers of last year, are at the tops of their positions hitting wise and with some decent personel surrounding them, I doubt the Phillies will have any major scoring droughts this year. However, their pitching is... well... it's bad. Simpley put... right now that really only have one guy in their starting five that is really a guy to worry about (Cole Hamels) and he's not only an injury risk.... he's also having a tad of an uneven stretch. However he's a gamer and as long as he's on the mound, he'll give the Phils a chance to win... but he's it. Their other "big" pitcher is Brett Myers who has NOT been very good at all this year. In fact, he seems to be having a simular problem that Oliver Perez is having, although Perez seems to be a little bit of a better big-game pitcher being able to beat the Phillies, Braves and Yankees. The bullpen HAS been good (Lidge looks reborn so far) but I don't know how long that will last with the derth of quailty starters.

The Braves scare me. Mostly if Smoltz can be healthy enough to be the close the rest of the year. If Soriano and Gonzoles come back healthy and can be what they were before their injuries then their bullpen looks very solid. Hudson has pitched like an ace and Jurgins he looked quite good. I DO think that Glavine's decent start will NOT continue in the 2nd half of the season, but I CAN see the Braves going out and getting another starter (Joe Blanton maybe?) and with the hitting the team has (Larry Jones, Texeria, Escobar, Francoeur, and McCann) they can score runs (although I expect a DL stint for Larry Jones any week now). However, if Smoltz CAN'T be healthy to close, and just ONE of Gonzo or Soriano cannot return to form, then my fears abide a little. We'll see.

With Pedro coming back today, and Alou back on Thursday, the Mets have two guys that can be BIG assets. If (and it is a big IF) these two guys can stay basically healthy the rest of the year (say only one more 15-day DL stint for each one) I think the Mets are ok and will win enough to make the playoffs. I would feel better if Delgado could have a second half of about .265 18 hr and 50 RBI, but I don't know if that's happening (prob not).

Even with that, the Mets have the tools to win the NL East (or at least the Wild card) and I think a playoff series starting three of Santana, Pedro and Maine is as good as just about ANYONE else.

They just have to GET there first.